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Thursday, November 12, 2015

11.12.2015 EURUSD long term count

10.28.2015 EURUSD intermediate/long term count

the picture resolved to the downside, which was our preferred scenario anyway

EU daily TF

EURUSD now at only 11% bulls BUT actually nearly all retail trader broker outlets show, that the crowd is in long positions.

But we should act with care here when playing the short side.

actually this is my main count since weeks

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Saturday, November 7, 2015

11.07.2015 XAUUSD long term count


03.07.2015 Gold long term count 

At the time of the last analysis, price of Gold went into a longer sideways direction, swinging between the low of around 1147 and  1232, after that further drop set in.

Although  sentiment data and COT positioning at that time pointed to a further drop, price went up for nearly 90 USD's.

In last analysis I also pointed out, that price was at key support level. So situation was not very clear, but slightly favoured upside/sideway (that is what key-support levels do  LOL)

GOLD sentiment is very bearish now - only 7% bulls left

interestingly enough - the retail crowd is mostly bullish as can be seen on most retail broker outlets. They have been bullish literally forever

Remembering Platinum a few months back. We then had a sentiment Index of around 5% or less bullish investors. I nearly took the long side when it was around 650 in June. But look at the charts what happened next - it went down to 520 or so.

Can we make sense of this behaviour?

Prechter once told, that the sentiment is at extremes near turning points. That is, where the crowd is wrong. But he also told, that the crowd is most of the time right in their sentiment within a wave 3. At the point of recognition the crowd gets it right and jumps on the train. That is the point, where sentiment is then at extremes and can not be used as contrary signal.

So advise is:

always check

a) wave structure
b) fib-levels
c) other supply/demand levels
d) COT data

and ask yourself, if the data alone does make any sense.

Last week I wrote:

Gold may be set to short (or maybe soon) see COT data {image}
By looking at this weeks COT data, we can notice, that the Commercials have reduced their short positions now (date: last Tuesday) from -166.000 to -125.000 contracts (shorts) and may have eventually further reduced with Fridays drop.

By judging from the various sentiment data (which are not homogeneous, and the Commercials rather quick reduction in shorts, one may conclude, that the ride further down may get a bit bumpy.

By looking at the wave structure we may have an ending diagonal situation right now. Another option would leave us with the situation, that we are in multiple 1-2's down since the 1307 high in January 2015. But I think that this is highly unlikely, unless we can make cases for Gold to be found around 200-400 over the course of the next 1-2 years.

This idea alone is rather intriguing, because I have wrote often, that if the Gold mania is to be corrected, it will be corrected down to the root of the maniac move, which can be found in the 200-400 vicinity

If the FED is about to hike rates, it may be a rather bad situation for Gold because of the deflationary character of rate hikes.

weekly TF
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3day TF (for visual reasons)
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 COT data

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Wednesday, October 28, 2015

10.28.2015 NatGas long term count

10.28.2015 EURUSD intermediate/long term count

when the blue 4 is not finished yet, next target would then be in the 1,18 - 1,20 vicinity

In this case, I do not belief any longer in this count, because the blue 4 would be stretched too far in relation to blue 2.

In this case, the impulse down from the 1.39 high had been finished at the 1.046 low already

When wave blue 4 is already finished, and we are down in the red 1-2-3-etc., then the target for for wave red 3 may be the 1.618 extension of red 1, which is around 1,048
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Tuesday, October 27, 2015

10.27.2015 USOIL long term count


01.31.2015 USOil short term count

All went as expected  :-)

We may be now in the final stages of wave blue 5 down. Inside of this blue 5 we are either in a prolonged wave red 4 up, or already in wave red 5 down.

Target for the end of wave blue 5 would be ideally around 33.30 to 29.60

After that the question is, if we are down in green ABC, or if the green will develop a full impulse.
If impulse, than targets would lie somewhere between roughly 8 and 15. We try to find the answer later by looking at sentiment data and COT positioning when the time has arrived.