Saturday, April 18, 2015

04.18.2015 XAUUSD short term count


03.07.2015 Gold long term count 

Short term I propose now the following count:

In commodities, especially Gold, the most momentum is often in the wave 5. Also wave 5 is most of the time the extended wave.

Under this premise, we should expect Gold to fall far more.

So the low @ 1131 may have only been the subwave 1 of a longer lasting impulsive wave. So now we might be in wave black 3 down. In this wave 3 we may have just finished the subwave 2 up. But be cautious: right now the move down is not convincingly impulsive. So we also should be prepared for a move higher towards the 61.8% retracement of wave light green 1, which is around  1246.

04.18.2015 EURUSD short term count


04.09.2015 EURUSD short term count

Price went a bit lower since the last analysis and reversed in the proposed reversal area. Although price was a bit shy of the ideal 0487 target, which would have made green C the 1.618 of A.

So far price is thought to be in an ABC-flat situation, where we would now be in impulsive wave C up.

The problem with this impulsive wave C is now, that the waves develop very overlapping.

Three thoughts now:

A) The wave red B down is not wave B, but we can count the waves down since the wave red A top as ending diagonal down. In this case we would be in wave 4 up of this ending diagonal which may terminate soon or already did.

B) we are in a far more complex sideways pattern which evolves as a complex WXY pattern

C) we are in a triangle pattern, where we have seen wave A and B, and are now in wave C up. In this wave C up, we are in the wave A which unfolds as triple X 

4h chart

04.18.2015 GBPUSD short term count


03.07.2015 GBPUSD short term count

The proposed reversal area came true @4635

Since then, price seems to be tracing out an ABC-flat. Wave light blue C of this flat is now a bit shy of 100% of A and formed a nice pin bar on the daily TF yesterday.

If price traces out an expanded flat correctionthen we are looking for targets up to the 5420 area, where C would be 1.618 of A.

Look for hints for long setups towards the broken base channel line in the 4800 area

04.18.2015 AUDUSD short term count


03.07.2015 AUDUSD short term count and long term count

Well, I really have no strong opinion in AUSUSD right now.

As you can see at the following chart, the wave light C of red Y of blue X may have already terminated.

Out of this view, pullbacks to the downside can be longed wit a SL just below the low @ 7533

Trade safe.....

04.18.2015 USDCAD long and short term count


02.04.2015 USDCAD long term count and historical chart

So far, price reversed/retraced in the anticipated grey marked area.