Saturday, May 16, 2015

05.16.2015 EURUSD short term count


05.09.2015 EURUSD short term count // main count

So far, price managed to build one more swing up than expected, and forced us to take a new close look at the whole wave red C structure again.

 Here is the result. Keep in mind: some Elliotticans have thewaves black 4, black 5, green 4 in the middle of the waves as a triangle. Personally, I do not like that, because the wave black 5 of green 3 is on small TF clearly impulsive.

But anyway: the result for both counts is the same.

From an sentiment point of view we have kind of a mixed bag.

On the one side, when looking at retail trader positions in the various outlets of retail broker, which can be seen here, one can notice, that the retail crowd is very short, still.When one would have followed their positioning closely the last week, one would have noticed kind of manic-depressive behaviour. They switched someday's their positions from very short to long and back to very short in one day. May be a sign of indecision. Most retail short positions are now significantly under water, and the pain mounts up.

On the other side we have the sentiment surveys as the Sentiment Index or the AnimusX sentiment, where one does not primarily at traders positions, but rather ask them for their sentiment.

And this surveys do show quite another picture.

Sentiment Index for EURO is at around 80% bulls and only 9% bulls for DXY (data from Thursday)

AnimusX survey also show us record like bullishness for the EURUSD.

So the question for me is: why are the retail crowd still short, when their sentiment is so bullish?

Well, maybe it is "hope springs eternal", and they are hanging onto their losing positions in the hope to get them at least near BE again. So when price will drop from this levels, they will cover their shorts very soon, and go long. Then they might be trapped again, when price keeps on going lower many hundreds of pips.

Well, finally let us look at the actual COT data. Keep in mind, they are published Fridays, but the data is from Tuesdays (so it is old data).

The important COT Index does show, that the COMMS and large SPECS positions moved in a way, that their COT Index turned to neutral. Again: this is old data, and price of EU climbed over the course of last week. So the COT index for the COMMSmay now be near 0 and for the large SPECS around 100.

The COT Index for the small SPECS keeps on sitting at 100 for some time now.

So we may reach a point, where it may be opportune to think about short positions again. But be careful: COT Data alone are a very poor tool for timing.

Let us take a last look at the net-positions of the players:

 We can clearly see a reduction in the net-positions of the players. But remember, that the pure net-positions are a poorly tool in reading the COT-Data.

Most important tool is the COT index data.

Will be interesting to see next Fridays data (which are then Data from Tuesday).

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

05.12.2015 EURGBP short term count


04.18.2015 EURGBP short term count

So far price did like what was estimated.

Price reversed at A = C. Now stalling at the lower channel of the upsloping corrective channel.

Question is: was this allof the wave green 4, or only the wave A of it?The corresponding wave 2 was fairly complex, took quite a bit of time, and retraced deeply.

So from a view of alternation, this wave 4 would be already satisfied with a simple ABC-flat as we have seen here.

A break below the old low @ 7014 will open the door for further movement down.

Saturday, May 9, 2015

05.09.2015 EURUSD short term count // main count


04.18.2015 EURUSD short term count

So far we got what we were looking for. Although the wave C impulse up in its wave 1 looked very overlaping. it now can be counted as wave 1 leading diagonal.

The question now is:

Has this impulse up finished the wave blue 4, or is it only the leg Aof this wave 4?

If only a leg A, one would mainly expect now a wave B down, which should retrace between roughly 90-138% of wave A (remember: wave A in this case would be a zigzag, so the whole wave 4 should evolve as ABC-flat).

In case wave 4 is already finished, expect a movement towards 1.046 to 0.86. I will get more specific on the way down.

Aso we can not rule out a scenario, where we are now in a months long lasting sideways pattern, maybe wxyxz or in a triangle. In case of a triangle, we are now in the wave B down.

Structure of the move down will guide us the way in the next few days/weeks.

Regarding Sentiment data:

Have only the sentiment index  from Thursday and that is 69% EURO bulls.

Also have the fresh Anumus X sentiment:

But besides this data, which is obtained by asking the traders for their opinion, the picture is completely different by looking at their positions.

Most broker outlets show, that the short positions are around 60% now. Oanda, Saxo and FXCM show, that the short positions got a bit reduced over the course of the last week, but not really meaningful.

Interpretation for me is, that the retail crowd is bullish now, but was caught on the wrong side of the table with their short positions in the last weeks.

I think they are hoping for somewhat deeper prices to get out eventually at or near BE. Then go long to reflect their bullish stance.

We have to closely watch behaviour and mood, when we drop further towards the lows. If mood snaps back to outright bearish, it may then time to go long again.

Trade carefully, Infinitus

Saturday, April 18, 2015

04.18.2015 XAUUSD short term count


03.07.2015 Gold long term count 

Short term I propose now the following count:

In commodities, especially Gold, the most momentum is often in the wave 5. Also wave 5 is most of the time the extended wave.

Under this premise, we should expect Gold to fall far more.

So the low @ 1131 may have only been the subwave 1 of a longer lasting impulsive wave. So now we might be in wave black 3 down. In this wave 3 we may have just finished the subwave 2 up. But be cautious: right now the move down is not convincingly impulsive. So we also should be prepared for a move higher towards the 61.8% retracement of wave light green 1, which is around  1246.

04.18.2015 EURUSD short term count


04.09.2015 EURUSD short term count

Price went a bit lower since the last analysis and reversed in the proposed reversal area. Although price was a bit shy of the ideal 0487 target, which would have made green C the 1.618 of A.

So far price is thought to be in an ABC-flat situation, where we would now be in impulsive wave C up.

The problem with this impulsive wave C is now, that the waves develop very overlapping.

Three thoughts now:

A) The wave red B down is not wave B, but we can count the waves down since the wave red A top as ending diagonal down. In this case we would be in wave 4 up of this ending diagonal which may terminate soon or already did.

B) we are in a far more complex sideways pattern which evolves as a complex WXY pattern

C) we are in a triangle pattern, where we have seen wave A and B, and are now in wave C up. In this wave C up, we are in the wave A which unfolds as triple X 

4h chart