Wednesday, March 25, 2015

03.25.2015 EURGBP short term count


03.06.2015 EURGBP long term count

So far, the last modification in the count seems to be spot on.

Notice, that the green wave 3 terminated around the 423.6% expansion level of wave green 1

Retracement should go up to the light blue 4, or to the black 4, meaning roughly 7590 to max. 8000

daily TF

03.25.2014 USDJPY short term count


03.07.2015 USDJPY short term count

The alternative count shown in above analysis is spot on till today. Only few pips more down are needed in order to get the proposed wave 1 wave 4 overlap of the ending diagonal.

8h TF


Wednesday, March 18, 2015

03.18.2015 EURUSD short term counts


03.07.2015 EURUSD alternative long term count 2

03.07.2015 EURUSD long term alternative count

Both counts remain valid. In light of that the USA is eventually in a tight-ing cycle, whereas the Eurozone is in outright money printing cycle, I lean toward the alternative count. The alternative count 2 would call for a bigger wave 2 up now, and in the end would certainly lead to the demise of the Euro. Or we would need to recount the whole waves down since the all-time-high in order to get something like a wxyxz structure.

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

03.10.2015 EURUSD long term count - food for thought


02.04.2015 EURUSD historical count and concept of eternal triangle

I think, that most Elliotticans have now above shown count.

But it seems, that only few have thought about, what comes after that.

Does the world think, that the problems in the Euro (zone) are structurally solved? Does the world think, that the actions of the ECB do have no further implications on the EURO? Does the world think, that imploding debt worldwide is not an act which leads to very strong deflation, and with the USD as reserve currency, in which most of the debt worldwide is denominated,will react in appreciating against nearly every other currency?

So let us think one step ahead:

maybe this

Saturday, March 7, 2015

03.07.2015 EURUSD alternative long term count 2

I have researched a lot of impulsive waves in Forex. Many of them end on a high momentum wave.

So I decided to deliver a count, which has an extended wave 5 with very much momentum.

The count preserves the good fib-relationships of the alternative count I showed beforehand.

In the extended wave blue 5:

wave red 3 is 276.4% of wave 1, which is common Harmonic Elliott Wave target

wave red 2 retraced 38.2% of red 1

the triangle red 4 retraced towards 30% of wave 3 with the A wave, and the latter part of the triangle banged its head multiple times against the 23.60% retracement

the ongoing wave red 5 is now 200% of red 4 @1.0844, which is a common target. At 300% it will be 1.0554

@1.0455 wave red 5 will be 200% of red 3

Both alternative counts I do like much more now than my main count. I think I should abandon my main count