Saturday, April 18, 2015

04.18.2015 XAUUSD short term count

Recap:

03.07.2015 Gold long term count 



Short term I propose now the following count:

In commodities, especially Gold, the most momentum is often in the wave 5. Also wave 5 is most of the time the extended wave.

Under this premise, we should expect Gold to fall far more.

So the low @ 1131 may have only been the subwave 1 of a longer lasting impulsive wave. So now we might be in wave black 3 down. In this wave 3 we may have just finished the subwave 2 up. But be cautious: right now the move down is not convincingly impulsive. So we also should be prepared for a move higher towards the 61.8% retracement of wave light green 1, which is around  1246.



04.18.2015 EURUSD short term count

Recap:

04.09.2015 EURUSD short term count


Price went a bit lower since the last analysis and reversed in the proposed reversal area. Although price was a bit shy of the ideal 0487 target, which would have made green C the 1.618 of A.


So far price is thought to be in an ABC-flat situation, where we would now be in impulsive wave C up.

The problem with this impulsive wave C is now, that the waves develop very overlapping.

Three thoughts now:

A) The wave red B down is not wave B, but we can count the waves down since the wave red A top as ending diagonal down. In this case we would be in wave 4 up of this ending diagonal which may terminate soon or already did.


B) we are in a far more complex sideways pattern which evolves as a complex WXY pattern

C) we are in a triangle pattern, where we have seen wave A and B, and are now in wave C up. In this wave C up, we are in the wave A which unfolds as triple X 

4h chart




04.18.2015 GBPUSD short term count

Recap:

03.07.2015 GBPUSD short term count


The proposed reversal area came true @4635

Since then, price seems to be tracing out an ABC-flat. Wave light blue C of this flat is now a bit shy of 100% of A and formed a nice pin bar on the daily TF yesterday.

If price traces out an expanded flat correctionthen we are looking for targets up to the 5420 area, where C would be 1.618 of A.

Look for hints for long setups towards the broken base channel line in the 4800 area




04.18.2015 AUDUSD short term count

Recap:

03.07.2015 AUDUSD short term count and long term count


Well, I really have no strong opinion in AUSUSD right now.

As you can see at the following chart, the wave light C of red Y of blue X may have already terminated.

Out of this view, pullbacks to the downside can be longed wit a SL just below the low @ 7533


Trade safe.....



04.18.2015 USDCAD long and short term count

Recap:

02.04.2015 USDCAD long term count and historical chart


So far, price reversed/retraced in the anticipated grey marked area.