Friday, January 30, 2015

01.30.2015 USOil short term count

Price is developing further down in a structure, which points to an ending diagonal of subwave 5 of red 5 of blue 3.

If the wave 5 extends more, I will look in the roughly 40.50-41 area for a snap-back (here is a nice fib-cluster)

Thursday, January 22, 2015

01.23.2015 EURUSD long term count

Two scenarios:

daily TF


01.23.2015 EURUSD short term count

last analysis recap:

Since Draghi delivered more than many had expected, market pushed price further down, thus invalidating my count.

Today we know, why SNB abandoned the 1.20 floor of the EURCHF so desperately.

Sentiment towards the EUR is now very bad. Many banks revised their targets down today for EURUSD.

Daily sentiment index of EUR does only show 4% bulls, whereas the DXY sees 95% bulls.

On the other hand: with the break of 1640 and 1460 we have not much of support left until the 1150 and the 1076-1074 zone.

I have also marked the 1206/9 level in my chart as support.

1209 = 61.8% of the move up from the 2000 low to the 2008 high.

The recent structure of the wave down from yesterdays 1680 high does look incomplete. The retracement since the low @ 1316 can be seen as a wave 4 action. The retracement may find resistance in the 1370 to 1444(daily pivot) area.

I have modified my main count to reflect the recent price developments

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

01.22.2015 EURUSD short term count

last analysis recap:

all three discussed options there remain valid

I remain with option a) as my main count.

As you can see on the next chart, the structure since the low is not convincing impulsive so far.

The first leg higher has a nearly wave 1 wave 4  overlap, the second leg up can be counted either as ending diagonal (which would make the whole structure to an ABC), or as leading diagonal (which would make the whole structure to a bullish 1-2, 1-2 pattern.

Trade safe today, reduce leverage, and good luck.

Friday, January 16, 2015

01.16.2015 EURUSD short term count

last analysis:

Well, the drop did not come unexpected.

pink 5 of blue 5 may have ended as ending diagonal. Price ran into major support, which can be seen on monthly chart.

I have here mainly four issues I am thinking about:

a) since the drop in EU was literally staged over the thin traded holidays in December, question is, if all the "smart money" was on board. If not, we may bounce now or soon.

b) the steep and fast drop in USDCHF and EURCHF has caught almost all the "smart money" on the wrong food. Even Goldman lost, and that might be telling. What will they do the next days, to recover at least a bit of their losses?

c) from an EW perspective, I do not like how the main base channel was broken and the momentum speeded up over the course of the last days. Right now my count shows, that we are in a wave 5 of an impulse down. Maybe we have to relable that in the future, because the actual 5 may develop as an unfolding wave 3 in reality!?

d) From an socio-economic point of view, central banks are only part of the herd, and history shows over and over, that central banks do the wrong at the worst time. They suck big in timing. So in light of this, was the decision of the SNB yesterday the panic reaction at the end of a wave 5? Got they involved in a sucker-rally? Inquiring minds want to know, but I fear we will only see in hindsight  :-( 

I see three options right now:

a) as shown in the following chart, we do acknowledge the spike down yesterday as the end of a wave 3 ABC-move (of an ending diagonal)


b) same count as above, but the actual subwave 5 of pink 5 is extending more to the downside: Maybe we are in wave B (up) of an ABC subwave 5 of pink 5 now.


c) ignore the spike (reasoning: leveraged market, algo-induced, panic etc.), then we may be actually in subwave 4 (up) of wave pink 5. So this would give us room for one more drop. Movement above 1727 would invalidate this view, because we would run into the territory of subwave 1.