So far, price managed to build one more swing up than expected, and forced us to take a new close look at the whole wave red C structure again.
Here is the result. Keep in mind: some Elliotticans have thewaves black 4, black 5, green 4 in the middle of the waves as a triangle. Personally, I do not like that, because the wave black 5 of green 3 is on small TF clearly impulsive.
But anyway: the result for both counts is the same.
From an sentiment point of view we have kind of a mixed bag.
On the one side, when looking at retail trader positions in the various outlets of retail broker, which can be seen here http://singulorum001.blogspot.de/p/sentiment.html, one can notice, that the retail crowd is very short, still.When one would have followed their positioning closely the last week, one would have noticed kind of manic-depressive behaviour. They switched someday's their positions from very short to long and back to very short in one day. May be a sign of indecision. Most retail short positions are now significantly under water, and the pain mounts up.
On the other side we have the sentiment surveys as the Sentiment Index or the AnimusX sentiment, where one does not primarily at traders positions, but rather ask them for their sentiment.
And this surveys do show quite another picture.
Sentiment Index for EURO is at around 80% bulls and only 9% bulls for DXY (data from Thursday)
AnimusX survey also show us record like bullishness for the EURUSD.
So the question for me is: why are the retail crowd still short, when their sentiment is so bullish?
Well, maybe it is "hope springs eternal", and they are hanging onto their losing positions in the hope to get them at least near BE again. So when price will drop from this levels, they will cover their shorts very soon, and go long. Then they might be trapped again, when price keeps on going lower many hundreds of pips.
Well, finally let us look at the actual COT data. Keep in mind, they are published Fridays, but the data is from Tuesdays (so it is old data).
The important COT Index does show, that the COMMS and large SPECS positions moved in a way, that their COT Index turned to neutral. Again: this is old data, and price of EU climbed over the course of last week. So the COT index for the COMMSmay now be near 0 and for the large SPECS around 100.
The COT Index for the small SPECS keeps on sitting at 100 for some time now.
So we may reach a point, where it may be opportune to think about short positions again. But be careful: COT Data alone are a very poor tool for timing.
Let us take a last look at the net-positions of the players:
We can clearly see a reduction in the net-positions of the players. But remember, that the pure net-positions are a poorly tool in reading the COT-Data.
Most important tool is the COT index data.
Will be interesting to see next Fridays data (which are then Data from Tuesday).