Tuesday, February 24, 2015

20.24.2015 EURUSD alternative short term count

Recap:

02.24.2015 EURUSD short term count


The above cited count remains valid.

After inspecting the structures of the waves again, I came up with the following idea, which would fit better on some waves, e.g. in light of impulsive substructures.

EU 4h TF


02.24.2015 USDJPY short term count

Recap:

02.13.2015 USDJPY short term count


So far the previous count looks good and still valid.

Target area for the wave E of the triangle is between 116.20 to 117.60


The following wave 5 may develop as thrust out of the triangle.

But keep in mind: nearly everyone is looking at this "supposed to be" triangle. What, if we are not looking at a developing triangle, but an ABC-flat, which could reach the following areas for example:

A = C = 114,19

C = 1.618 A = 110.31

The ABC-flat is labelled as alternative in the following count. Markets will inflict pain to most of the market participants most of the time. So keep an open mind and try to expect the unexpected.

UJ 8h TF



Monday, February 23, 2015

02.24.2015 EURUSD short term count

Recap:

02.09.2015 EURUSD short to near term count


EURUSD seems to trace out a very complex consolidating pattern.

Keep in mind, that when such structures appear, chance is very high that a count gets invalidated, or does get more complex.

So take the next wave proposal with a grain of salt.

The golden wave E may be already finished, or may extend a bit more to the downside over the course of the next hours.

EU 4h TF


 

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

02.16.2015 EURGBP short term count

Recap:

02.01.2015 EURGBP long term and short term count


The EURGBP moved a bit more down over the course of the last two weeks.

Today it got rejected exactly at the 100% line of red A = red B

Would be a beauty, when price will go straight up right now from here.


Remember: the count will be invalidated with movement below of 7255, because the recent supposed to be wave 4 would enter the territory of the wave 1.

If that happens, we have to reassess the whole count.


Trading idea: go long here, with a SL just below 7255



 

Friday, February 13, 2015

02.13.2015 GBPUSD short term count

Recap:

02.06.2015 GBPUSD long term and short term count


So far the main count has survived. Price is within a wave 4 (light blue). In this wave 4 price has traced out an ABC-flat, where the wave C of the flat hit exactly the 161.8% expansion of the wave A.

When the count is true, chances are high that we will see a reversal to the downside here.

The corresponding wave light blue 2 had only formed a simple zigzag and retraced deeply.

So we should expect, that the light blue 4 will trace out a more complex correction over the course of the next few weeks. In this sense I think, it is most probable, that we have only seen wave A or W of a complex wave light blue 4.

In this sense we should expect a reversal to the downside here which would ideally lead to the 5120 support shelf at least. Extended 4980/90 area.

A break below of previous lows and the probability goes up, that we have already seen the end of wave light blue 4.

12h TF