EU

let us look at the movements:

starting from the last high at 1.14x this high could mark

a) the end of an ABC-flat (up) which is a wave 4

b) the end of an ABC-flat (up), which is only part of a bigger correction

c) the 1.04x low marked the intermediate end of a bigger move down.

Now we are in an overlaping move up, which can be a leading diagonal. In this Leading diagonal we may be now in wave 5 up.

The 1.14x high was the end of the wave 3 The movement down from the 1.14x top looks most likely like an ABC-move. There are some Elliotticans out with counting this as an impulse. It seems one can do this, but it does not look right for me.

When counting ABC, then C is a bit short of 100% of A Now let us look at the move up: We had this overlapping movement from the 0819 low to the 1006 high. When we take this and put a fib-expansion on it, then the next peak at 1194 was pretty much 161.8% of this first overlapping wave. The following retracement lead to a 38.2% decline of the previous wave up. Would fit nicely with a 4th wave within an impulse. So most likely for now we are now in the wave 5 of an impulse up from the 0819 low. It may terminate around 1300-1310

What can we make out of this information:

down from the 14x top is most likely 2 waves (ABC) up from 0819 so far looks like impulse.

So let us look again on the 3 possible outcomes presented in the first rows:

**a) the end of an ABC-flat (up) which is a wave 4**

this seems to be invalidated, unless the wave 5 down develops now as ending diagonal (3-3-3-3-3) since we have now two waves down, it would need now 2 waves up (ABC or ABC-x-ABC) this would lead to a deep retracing wave 2 of 5 (in this case we could be now in ABC-x-A with B and C to come)

**b) the end of an ABC-flat (up), which is only part of a bigger correction**basically like above. The scenario would be, that the first 2 waves down were A, now 2 waves up for B, and then impulsive down for wave C (ABC-flat) In this case we should see a retracement of at least to 1372, and max. 1714. I would go with the 1372 The following impulse down should bring us towards 1,09 to 1.07 area

**In this case we would make a new high above 1.14x, probably 1714 to 2115**

c) the 1.04x low marked the intermediate end of a bigger move down. Now we are in an overlapping move up, which can be a leading diagonal. In this Leading diagonal we may be now in wave 5 up. The 1.14x high was the end of the wave 3

c) the 1.04x low marked the intermediate end of a bigger move down. Now we are in an overlapping move up, which can be a leading diagonal. In this Leading diagonal we may be now in wave 5 up. The 1.14x high was the end of the wave 3

Keep in mind: the wave 2 after a leading diagonal retraces very deep. Normally around 80-85% of wave 1. That should bring us back also into the 1.08-1.06 area.

The problem with this count is: it would have 2 Leading diagonals: one as wave 1 of 1, the other as wave 1 of 5 Leading diagonals are rare. 2 Leading diagonals in one impulse nearly impossible. When I remember right, Prechter does expect leading diagonals only in wave 1, not in wave 5

The other problem with this count: it would look against some fundamentals, with the US about to hike rates. And this count would deliver much higher targets for the next 12 months or so.

**So from a probability point of view I would go with variant A (the ending diagonal scenario) or B**