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Friday, May 26, 2017

05.26.2017 DX long term count

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DXY count

daily TF

well, right now we have only around 5-7% DXY bulls left. That alone may call for a rally sooner than later. The only time out of my experience, when the masses are right for a long time, is in the center of a wave 3 on multiple degree.

But here we are only a relatively tiny movement away from the highs, and the structure does not look like a 3 of a 3.

Regarding the blue impulse up: wave 1 (blue) is nearly equal wave 5 blue. Although the wave 5 blue has no clear impulsive pattern, I decided to label it as wave 5, because of wave 1 blue = wave 5 blue.

Time wise, 80% of all wave 4 are within the 0-175% of wave 2. We have around 100% in this case.

If we imply that since the wave 3 blue top all following action is a broad wave 4, then we are running quickly out of probability, because only very few times
wave 4 is bigger than 200% of wave 2 time-wise.

In this case, the count from the blue 3 top would be kind of an ABC-flat, where we are now in wave C down.

The wave C of a flat is ideally between 100-200% of wave A. We are a bit short here of the 100%
Also the wave C of a flat should be ideally between around 80-170% of wave B. Right now we are somewhat around 60% roughly.

The structure down from the blue 5 looks at the moment like a double 3.

For me, above all counts, structure and time considerations, is the fact, that the bears right now are so many (95%).

Looks set to go higher soon out of my view.

keep also an eye on the red 1,2 respective the red AB:

now the top is around 161,8 of red 1 (or A)


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